Issued: 2014 Jan 01 1225 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
01 Jan 2014 | 148 | 013 |
02 Jan 2014 | 148 | 019 |
03 Jan 2014 | 150 | 010 |
Active solar conditions were observed since our last bulletin. An M6.4 flare occurred in NOAA AR 11936 on December 31 with peak time at 21:58 UT, associated with a CME. This eruption followed a long duration C8.8 event at 11:50 UT, occurring in the active region complex that is turning over the east limb. More C-class flaring is expected, especially in regions 11936 and 11938. Another M-class flare from AR 11936 is also possible. Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole fast wind stream and CME activity, we expect minor storm conditions (K_Dourbes up to 5) late this evening and early tomorrow. SDO/AIA images show that the M-flare on December 31 was accompanied by a CME. Due to the location of the source region, we expect this slow CME (projected speed ~270 km/s) to reach Earth early on January 5 where it may cause unsettled or active geomagnetic conditions (K_Dourbes up to 4).
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 10 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 145 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 006 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | /// - Based on /// stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 | 2145 | 2158 | 2220 | S16W35 | M6.4 | 2N | 160 | --/1936 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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