Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jan 09 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Jan 2014	170	073
10 Jan 2014	160	075
11 Jan 2014	160	031

Bulletin

Three C flares occurred since our last bulletin. Two flares originated from NOAA AR 1944 (Catania sunspot group 98) and one from NOAA AR 1946 (Catania sunspot group 97). NOAA AR 1944 showed signs of decay in size, but is still strongly connected to neighbouring regions NOAA AR 1946 and 1943. More flaring activity is possible from these regions within the next 48 hours. Chances for C flares are 70%, for M flares 50% and X flares 20%. Two coronal holes are currently located at the central meridian, one between -15 and +20 degrees latitude and one between 25 and 60 degrees latitude. A high speed stream might be reaching the Earth from late January 10 and early January 11 (UTC time) on. No additional Earth directed CMEs were detected. The proton flux is still very high for >10MeV protons, but decreasing. It reached a maximum value of around 1000 sfu and now has a value near 300 sfu. The proton event is expected to continue for the next few hours. The proton flux for >50 and >100MeV protons is currently below the event threshold. Proton fluxes might rise again in case of major flares. Solar wind measurements show no signs of the expected arrival yet of the CME of January 9. Solar wind speed has risen to a maximum near 500 km/s and currently has a value of 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 0 and 9 nT. The Bz- component achieves values in the ranges from -8 to +6 nT. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the CME of January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until the noon of January 10 under clear sky conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay near K=4 to 5 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on January 11.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 074, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	117
10cm solar flux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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