Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0727Z from Region 1944 (S09W43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at
09/2313Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/2253Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1449Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu at 09/2150Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 543 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(13 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Jan),
are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Jan) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 80% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 175 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 175/170/175 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 015/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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