Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
12/0005Z from Region 1944 (S10W69). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
717 km/s at 12/2009Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0143Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1842Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11 pfu at
12/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 10% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 155 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 155/145/140 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/006-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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