Viewing archive of Monday, 10 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 10 1311 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Feb 2014	167	010
11 Feb 2014	168	005
12 Feb 2014	170	008

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity is decreasing in last few days. During the past 24 hours four C-class flares and an isolated M class flare were observed. The M1.0 flare which peaked at 16:00 UT on February 9, originated in the active region right behind the east-south-east solar limb. It was accompanied by coronal dimmings, an EIT wave, an erupting prominence and a post-eruption arcade. The associated full halo CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 16:00 UT on February 9. Due to the source region position, we do not expect this CME to arrive at the Earth. From the currently available data, the prominence eruption (in the north-east quadrant of the Sun) observed at about 05:30 UT on February 10 does not seem to be associated with the Earth directed CME. Three out of seven, currently numbered sunspot groups visible on the solar disc, have beta- gamma configurations of the photospheric magnetic field, and still growing. Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) have rotated behind the west solar limb. Due to the close to the solar limb position of these groups we still keep warning conditions for a proton event. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with the possibility of an isolated M-class flare. The solar wind speed is currently around 460 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable amounting about 5-6 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled (K<4) geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	169
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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