Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/0425Z from Region 1974 (S13W12). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
472 km/s at 12/0327Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2057Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2144Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 678 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (14 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (15
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 160 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-015/025-028/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 60% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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