Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 16 1521 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2014	161	030
17 Feb 2014	160	011
18 Feb 2014	158	007

Bulletin

The strongest flare in past 24 hours was M1.1 flare peaking at 09:26 UT on February 16. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 44 (NOAA AR 1977) which currently has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also M-class flares. The Catania sunspot group 36 (NOAA AR 1974) still has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and it is situated close to the West solar limb so we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently 370 km/s and slowly decreasing. The interplanetary field magnitude is elevated (about 18 nT) due to arrival of the shock wave on February 15, at about 12:35 UT, associated with multiple ICME. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is at the moment positive. A few intervals of negative Bz occurred since the arrival of the shock wave, and the longest one was around midnight of February 16 which resulted in geomagnetic disturbance (Kp=5, as reported by NOAA and K=5 as recorded by Izmiran). The fast flow, associated with the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere (between N20 and N40) which reached the central meridian on February 13 is expected at the Earth later today or early tomorrow. We expect active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions to continue due to the expected arrival of CMEs observed on February 12 and February 13.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	082 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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