Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1501Z from Region 1982 (S10W49). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28
Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at
25/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1255Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1725Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 26/0010Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (27
Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 70% | 40% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 178 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 014/018-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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