Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0210Z from Region 1991 (S24W25). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
501 km/s at 05/1654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/2312Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/2135Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
04/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 149 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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