Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1102Z from Region 2014 (S13W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
554 km/s at 26/0049Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/1121Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 153 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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