Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Apr 03 1223 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Apr 2014	154	005
04 Apr 2014	154	007
05 Apr 2014	154	023

Bulletin

Solar activity was dominated by an M6.5 flare from NOAA AR 2027 peaking at 14:05 UT, April 2. It was associated with a filament eruption and type II radio bursts. The corresponding full halo CME was first visible in LASCO C2 at 13:36 UT. Measured projected speeds by CACTus vary between 500 km/s and over 1500 km/s. The bulk of the mass was expelled in north east direction. Given the location of the source region and the direction of the ejecta the impact on earth will probably be limited. We can expect at least the impact of the CME driven shock but also a weak impact of the CME itself is probable. Arrival is likely to be around midnight April 4 to 5. Solar wind speed decreased rather steadily from just above 400 km/s to now just above 360 km/s. The total magnetic field was stable in the 4 to 6 nT range. No signatures of the anticipated arrival of the CMEs of March 28, 29, and 30 have been observed. Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (both local K and planetary Kp <=2) over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in the next 36 hours. Afterwards, the arrival of the April 1 and April 2 CMEs may cause unsettled to active conditions and possibly minor storms. Also the low latitude coronal hole that passed the central meridian late April 1, early April 2 may become geoeffective by midnight April 4 to 5.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Apr 2014

Wolf number Catania	125
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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