Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1050Z from Region 2026 (S11W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr,
08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
548 km/s at 05/1346Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/2036Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 142 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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