Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/1932Z from Region 2032 (N12W83). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Apr) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
583 km/s at 19/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2118Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2345Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at
19/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (20 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (21 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Apr). Protons are expected to remain above the 10 pfu
threshold on days one and two (20-21 Apr) and have a chance of crossing
threshold on day three (22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 169 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 170/170/160 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 022/035-021/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 75% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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