Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1459Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
419 km/s at 26/0523Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/2200Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2678 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 121 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 118/115/112 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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