Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr,
01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 304 km/s at
29/1952Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2004Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 515 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 May, 02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 120 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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