Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 04 1314 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 May 2014	132	013
05 May 2014	130	004
06 May 2014	130	010

Bulletin

The Sun produced six C-class flares since our last bulletin. The source regions were Catania sunspot groups 33, 34 and 36 (NOAA AR 2047, 2049 and 2051 respectively). Catania sunspot group 36 has slightly grown in size and keeps its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. The CME associated to the long-duration event of 6:12 UT on 3 May apparently is moving to the west, but also has an Earth-directed component. The CME is expected to arrive around 18:00 UT of 6 May. An asymmetric but faint halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 20:48 on 3 May, but analysis of coronagraphic imagery reveals it is expected not to be Earth-directed. Flaring activity at C-class level is expected to continue, with a slight chance for M-class flares. ACE observations of the interplanetary conditions show a signature of shock arrival on 3 May, around 16:50 UT. It is probably associated with the CME event of 30 April. Solar wind speed increased to about 380 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field went maximally 12 nT, with a vertical component that is varying between -9 and 7 nT. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed in Dourbes (local K=3) and global NOAA Kp went to K=4. Quiet to active conditions can be expected for the next few hours. The situation will then return to quiet conditions. Unsettled to active conditions could be expected due to the arrival of the CME of 3 May from the UT afternoon of 6 May on.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 03 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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