Viewing archive of Friday, 23 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 23 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 May 2014	113	021
24 May 2014	116	013
25 May 2014	116	007

Bulletin

There were four low C flares during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was a C1.5 flare released by NOAA AR 12065 with peak time at 04:58 UT on May 23. No new CMEs were observed. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (85%, from NOAA AR 12071, 12072, 12073, 12065, and 12066) and for M flares around 25%, especially from NOAA AR 12071 and 12065. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed as observed by ACE was around 350 km/s until it suddenly jumped to about 500 km/s around 3h30 UT on May 23. This was probably due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream. Meanwhile the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) had increased from 5 nT to about 12 nT. Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) due to the IMF's positive Bz angle. As an effect of the high speed stream, quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm (K Dourbes = 5) periods are expected on May 23 and 24. Quiet conditions are expected on May 25.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 22 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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