Viewing archive of Monday, 2 June 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 327 km/s at 02/0523Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1230Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jun, 04 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 105
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%05%

All times in UTC

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