Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 June 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jun 24 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Jun 2014	093	016
25 Jun 2014	094	010
26 Jun 2014	095	007

Bulletin

A C2.1 flare peaked at 00:29 UT today. It originated behind the limb at Catania 92 (NOAA AR 2092 and 2087) which rotated over the west limb today. A CME seems to be related to this flare, but there is no coronagraph, nor any STEREO-A data (data gap) to confirm, this should not be Earth directed in any case. More flaring activity at the C-class level can be expected from this AR (before it disappears completely from the visible side of the Sun), from Catania 89 and 90 (NOAA AR 2093, even though it has lost its beta gamma configuration) and Catania 92 (NOAA AR 2096) and Catania 93 (NOAA AR 2097), which are growing in size. A partial halo CME erupted at 06:12 UT (first seen by LASCO-C2, after a data gap), with an angular width of about 100 degrees and speed of 1000 km/s. This event is backsided, the eruption started in the south west of the the Sun as seen by STEREO-A, the bulk of the material is directed towards the south and it is not expected to arrive to the Earth. A shock was detected at ACE on June 23 at 22:00 UT, it corresponds to the expected glancing blow of the CME from June 19. The speed jumped to 400 km/s while the magnetic field intensity did not reach 10 nT. Therefore, only unsettled geomagnetic conditions occurred. The arrival of the CME from June 20 is expected later on today with possible active to minor storm levels. A glancing blow from the CME on June 21 can be expected tomorrow, causing active conditions at most.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Jun 2014

Wolf number Catania	090
10cm solar flux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	050 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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