Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 July 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Jul 10 1255 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jul 2014	200	012
11 Jul 2014	198	007
12 Jul 2014	198	011

Bulletin

Solar flare activity was limited to two C-class flares, originating from Catania sunspot regions 3 and 5 (NOAA AR 2104 and 2106 respectively), both located near the West limb. Catania region 16 (NOAA AR 2113) was stable and did not produce additional flares and also Catania sunspot regions 6 and 9 (NOAA 2108 and 2109 respectively) did not show much activity. Two partial halo CMEs were observed in coronagraphic imagery. The first CME (first measurement in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 16:36 UT on July 9) was associated with a filament eruption occurring near S00E15 and is propagating east from the Sun-Earth line with a projected plane of the sky speed of 520 km/s (CACTus estimation). The second CME (first measurement in SOHO/LASCO C2 at 7:12 UT on July 10) was associated with a prominence eruption occurring near Catania region 3 and is propagating west from the Sun-Earth line with a projected plane of the sky speed of 760 km/s (CACTus estimation). For the first CME, the arrival of a glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave is expected on July 13 near 0 UT. The second CME has less chances to arrive at Earth, but minor signatures of arrival might still be possible on the UT morning of July 13. Flaring activity is expected to continue with C-class flares and possibly an isolated M-class flare. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 350 to 400 km/s, as measured by ACE. The magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field was stable with values between 4 and 8 nT with a mainly negative Bz component. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so. At the possible arrival of a glancing blow July 8 CME, active conditions are expected from the evening of July 11.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jul 2014

Wolf number Catania	184
10cm solar flux	198
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	127 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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