Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 August 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Aug 19 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Aug 2014	116	015
20 Aug 2014	121	012
21 Aug 2014	125	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low with just two C flares at the start of the reporting period. The largest one was a C1.8 originating from NOAA AR 2147, peaking at 13:55 UT. The other one a C1.2 flare from NOAA AR 2139 peaking at 16:56 UT. No earth directed CME's have been recorded. Solar activity is expected to remain at similar low levels over the next days. Solar wind conditions were steady and nominal until the arrival of a moderate shock this morning around 6:00 UT. Solar wind speed has increased since then from 290 km/s before the shock to around 380 km/s at present with a peak above 430 km/s in between. Total magnetic field increased from around to 7 nT to around 12nT presently with peaks above 13 nT. Bz was variable, mostly positive but with negative values peaking around -11nT. Temperature and density have also increased. The conditions are likely due to an earlier then expected arrival of the August 15 CME. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled so far (NOAA Kp mostly 1 but reaching K=3 just recently and local K Dourbes at most 2). Under the continued influence of the CME arrival, elevated solar wind conditions and periods of active geomagnetic conditions should be anticipated during the following day, with minor geomagnetic storm conditions possible. These will settle afterwards to unsettled and quiet to unsettled conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Aug 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	111
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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