Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 August 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
23/1727Z from Region 2146 (N10W18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug,
26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
22/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0505Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 457 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 132 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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