Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1315Z from Region 2152 (S16W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep,
05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
521 km/s at 02/0825Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1646Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0439Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
02/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 136 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 008/008-007/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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