Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 September 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Sep 06 1354 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Sep 2014	144	011
07 Sep 2014	144	008
08 Sep 2014	140	006

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2157 (Catania number 45) produced numerous C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the strongest of them being the C8.0 flare peaking today at 08:14 UT. This active region has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, so we expect more flaring activity up to the M-level, mostly from this sunspot group. An isolated X-class flare is possible but unlikely. The C8.0 flare was accompanied by coronal dimmings indicating the eruption of a CME. However, there is no SOHO/LASCO data yet to confirm the CME occurrence. A partial halo CME was detected yesterday first appearing in the LASCO C2 field of view at 19:24 UT. STEREO B EUVI data show that its source region was located on the far side of the Sun (filament eruption around N15E160 as seen from the Earth), so this CME will not have geomagnetic consequences. The solar proton flux is just below the SEP event threshold, so we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. Since around 04:00 UT today, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is elevated (up to 12 nT) indicating the arrival of an ICME, probably corresponding to the partial halo CME detected on the Sun on September 2. Due to low solar wind speed (around 350 km/s), the geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled. The IMF now turned northward, so the geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Sep 2014

Wolf number Catania	130
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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