Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1/2b event observed at
10/1745Z from Region 2158 (N15E00). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12
Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 10/1533Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2038Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1917Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 160 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 006/005-021/032-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 45% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 79% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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