Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 21 1342 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Oct 2014	190	012
22 Oct 2014	193	012
23 Oct 2014	195	013

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) continues to grow and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, the strongest of them being the M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UT. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. An active region at the north-east limb (no sunspots are still visible) produced several flares including the C6.3 flare peaking at 10:58 UT today. It may produce an isolated M-class flare as well. A weak partial halo CME (angular width around 200 degrees) was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 19:12 UT on October 20. The CME was very weak and disappeared before reaching the LASCO C3 field of view, so we do not expect it to arrive at the Earth. The source region of the CME is the eruption in the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) and in the region to the south-west of it, starting around 18:40 UT, accompanied with coronal dimmings and the M1.4 flare peaking at 19:02 UT. The solar wind speed is currently high (around 640 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic filed (IMF) magnitude is around 7 nT. Due to elevated values of the IMF magnitude and predominantly southward IMF direction, the K index reached 5 during one interval yesterday evening (according to Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA). Currently the north-south IMF component Bz is fluctuating around zero, so we expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4) in the coming hours, possibly with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	171
10cm solar flux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	031
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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