Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 October 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
22/1428Z from Region 2192 (S12E06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 21/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1510Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0454Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11815 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Oct), unsettled to active
levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
through three (23-25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Class X | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Proton | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 216 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 014/015-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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