Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 23 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Oct 2014	221	012
24 Oct 2014	226	012
25 Oct 2014	231	011

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) produced an X1.6 flare (peaking yesterday at 14:28 UT) and an M1.1 flare (peaking today at 09:50 UT). These flares were not associated with CMEs. Catania sunspot group 93 (NOAA AR 2195) close to the east solar limb produced an M1.4 flare peaking at 15:57 UT, and this flare was associated only with a narrow CME. Catania sunspot group 88 will remain the main flare source as it continues to grow (this is the largest sunspot group during the two solar cycles) and maintains the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Although the sunspots of the main magnetic polarities are somewhat separating, we still expect the flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. As the Catania sunspot group 88 is currently situated at the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 430 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so. Yesterday an interval of K = 5 was reported by IZMIRAN and an interval of K = 4 by Dourbes (K index according to NOAA remained at the quiet to unsettled levels with K < 4). This interval of slightly disturbed geomagnetic conditions was produced by a slow solar wind interval with predominantly negative north-south IMF component Bz.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	202
10cm solar flux	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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