Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Oct 28 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Oct 2014	165	014
29 Oct 2014	160	006
30 Oct 2014	150	007

Bulletin

Another X-class flare was produced by Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192); an X2.1 flare peaked at 14:47 UT on October 27. Also three M-class and several C-class flares were added to the activity list of this region. No associated CME was observed, nor was there an increase in proton flux. The region retains its area and magnetic complexity and has still high potential to produce additional flares up to the X-level. It is currently located close to the West limb and a strong eruption may result in a rise of the proton flux. The extended filament in the northern hemisphere has the potential to lift off and produce an Earth- directed CME. Earth is inside a slow solar wind, with a speed near 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reaches values up to 8 nT, with an often southward oriented Bz. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are observed, with a few isolated time slots of active (K=4, measured at Dourbes) conditions. Quiet to active conditions are expected to continue.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Oct 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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