Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 15 1415 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2014	160	022
16 Nov 2014	165	017
17 Nov 2014	167	011

Bulletin

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was the M3.2 flare on November 15, with the peak time at 12:03 UT. This long-duration flare originated from the NOAA AR 2209. From the currently available data it seems that the flare was confined, i.e., without the associated CME. However, this will be confirmed once the coronagraph data become available. The NOAA ARs 2209 and 2208 are growing in the area and the number of sunspots and they both currently have beta-gamma configuration of the photospehric magnetic field. We expect more C-class and M-class flares from these active regions. An isolated X-class flare is possible from the NOAA AR 2209. The NOAA AR 2205 is currently situated at the west solar limb, a major eruption from this active region is still possible, but not very probable. Since such an eruption may lead to a proton event we maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 500 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude amounts about 9 nT. We confirm the arrival of the sector boundary at approximately 06:00 UT on November 14. Due to the sector boundary change, geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled to active (local stations Dourbe and Izmiran reported value of K=4) and expected to remain so in the coming hours. The arrival of the fast flow, associated with the extended low latitude coronal hole which reached the central meridian in the morning of November 13, is expected later today or tomorrow morning. We expect that it will induce unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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