Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 24 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Dec 2014	150	013
25 Dec 2014	140	006
26 Dec 2014	140	006

Bulletin

Six C-class flares were observed since our last bulletin. Catania sunspot regions 39 and 38 (NOAA active regions 2241 and 2242 respectively) once more were the main players. The strongest flare was a C4.9 flare peaking at 22:49 UT on December 23, erupted from Catania 38. A C3.7 flare occurred in Catania 39, peaking at on December 24. During the event plasma material was ejected as seen on SDO/AIA imagery, indicating the possibility for an accompanying CME. Due to a data gap in SOHO/LASCO coronagraphic imagery, this can not be confirmed yet. Catania region 42 (NOAA 2244) was not very productive and only produced small C-flares, though it still has a beta-gamma magnetic structure. More C-flares are expected, with a chance for an isolated M-flare. The > 10 MeV proton flux has decreased again to 1 to 4 pfu, but still remains at this enhanced level. The proton warning is retained. Flaring activity from Catania regions 38 and 39, currently positioned near the west limb, might introduce an increase of the proton flux. No Earth-effective CMEs were observed yet. The solar wind speed first obtained values between 400 and 500 km/s and increased around 23 UT to about 600 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from about 30 to 7 nT, with a fluctuating Bz component. The shock arrival at 10:30 UT on December 23, is believed to be associated to a CME on December 21 (first measurement in LASCO at 12:12 UT, related to the M1.0 flare at 12:17 UT). The phi component indicated a few sector boundary crossings, starting at a positive sector and then from 17:30 UT on going back and forth between positive and negative sectors. Geomagnetic conditions were active (NOAA Kp till K=4), with a single time slot of minor storm conditions at the local level (Dourbes reached K=5 around 21 UT). Geomagnetic conditions might further be influenced by CME effects, probably resulting in unsettled to active levels for the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 063, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	151
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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