Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 08 1243 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Jan 2015	151	022
09 Jan 2015	156	019
10 Jan 2015	161	013

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C4.2 flare peaking at 4:34 UT from Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253). Catania 50 (NOAA 2257) continued to grow but was inactive and the new spots turning into view on the southern hemisphere were numbered Catania 55 and 57 (NOAA 2259). Further C flaring is expected with still a chance for an M flare and also a possibility for a proton event should Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253) produce significant flaring. No Earth directed CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions slowly recovered after yesterdays CME arrival. Solar wind speed was mainly in the 420-500 km/s range. Total magnetic field recovered to the 6 to 13 nT range and is presently around 9 nT. During the episode of elevated total magnetic field, Bz was pronounced negative before the start of the reporting period, evolving to pronounced positive after UT noon and becoming variable in the +/- 6nT range around 20:00UT as total magnetic field values recovered. The magnetic field phi angle became positive after the event. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active in the wake of yesterdays CME. Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to continue under the anticipated influence of a returning positive polarity coronal hole. Corresponding quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected with minor storms possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	142
10cm solar flux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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