Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
14/2324Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 15/0520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 131 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 011/010-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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