Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 27 1225 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Jan 2015	155	010
28 Jan 2015	160	010
29 Jan 2015	165	018

Bulletin

Five C- and one M-class flare were observed over the period. The strongest event was an isolated M1.1 flare peaking at 16:53 UT in NOAA 2268. This sunspot group still has some mixed magnetic polarities in its trailing portion. Newly numbered AR NOAA 2273 and NOAA 2275 also show some magnetic mixing in resp. their trailing and middle portion. Old active region NOAA 2257 is heralding its approach at the NE limb with increased flaring and CME activity. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The 10.7 cm radio-flux jumped from 127 sfu on 25 January to 147 sfu on 26 January, with the x-ray background flux now near the C1-level. A 20 degree long filament near the solar equator is at W40 and thus in a geoeffective position in case of eruption. There's a chance on another M-class flare. Solar wind was steady at 370 km/s till 01:00UT before gradually increasing to a maximum speed just over 500 km/s around 07:00UT. It is currently near 440 km/s. Bz varied between -9 nT and +6 nT, and is now fluctuating between -5 and +3 nT. Solar wind parameters were indicative of a HSS from a CH. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled. A small equatorial CH transited the CM on 25 January and may influence the geomagnetic field on 29 January. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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