Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 January 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jan 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Jan 2015	165	008
30 Jan 2015	170	018
31 Jan 2015	173	015

Bulletin

NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 dominated the flaring activity, producing a total of 11 C- and 2 M-class flares over the period. The strongest flare was an M2.1 flare peaking at 11:42UT. Further data and imagery are required to assess any related CME. NOAA 2277 also produced an M-class event: the impulsive M1.0 flare peaked at 21:37UT. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Both NOAA 2268 and NOAA 2277 show mixed magnetic polarities. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced, probably in response to the M1.4 flare from 28 January. With a maximum of 0.7 pfu, it stayed well below the proton event threshold. Further M-class flaring is expected. Solar wind speed started the period varying between 420 and 450 km/s, but gradually declined towards values between 360 and 400 km/s. Bz was initially very close to 0 nT, but varied between +4 and -5 nT by the end of the period. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Further disturbances in the the solar wind are possible from other CH HSS and a possible glancing blow on 30 January from the 24 January CME. The extension of a southern polar CH is currently at the CM and is expected to influence the geomagnetic field around 01 February. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 112, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Jan 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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