Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 March 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Mar 12 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Mar 2015	132	011
13 Mar 2015	130	013
14 Mar 2015	128	012

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were several C-class flares, 4 M-class flares and 1 X-class flare which were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) AR 2297, which is currently located at S15E10, and is classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flares recorded over the past 24 hours, all produced by AR 2297, were an X2.1 flare on 2015-Mar-11 peaking at 16:22UT, a M1.0 flare on 2015-Mar-11 peaking at 18:51UT, a M3.2 flare on 2015-Mar-12 peaking at 04:46UT a M(*1.8) flare on 2015-Mar-12 peaking at around 11:50UT and a subsequent M(*1.5) flare on 2015-Mar-12 peaking at around 12:20UT (*N.b. data became available at the time of release and may vary slightly). AR 2297 has shown some evolution with some flux emergence, which may lead to future eruptions. AR 2298 has evolved into a Beta region, but is showing little activity. There were no discernible Earth directed CMEs over the past 24 hours. AR 2297 produced continual out-flows throughout the past 24 hours and several CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejection) directed to the North. The X-class flare had an associated 'coronal dimming' and waves observed in the EUV, which are good indicators of a CME. However, due to a data gap in the coronagraph observations no CME was detected. There is a large filament located between S10W90 and S50E20, however this has remained, and appears, stable. The solar wind speed has been slowly increasing over the past 24 hours from 400 km/s to 430 km/s. The total magnetic field has fluctuated from around 6 nT to 9 nT before returning to 6 nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated from positive to negative. The Bz has ranged between +6 and -5 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A transient coronal hole is currently located at W30, this may produce enhanced solar wind speeds. AR 2297 produced several small CMEs and continual flows over the past 24 hours, as this region rotates towards disk center it may produce more geoeffective events.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	054
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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