Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Apr 15 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Apr 2015	148	028
16 Apr 2015	151	019
17 Apr 2015	146	008

Bulletin

Only low C-class flares were reported in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2321 has currently beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flare, in particular from NOAA ARs 2321, 2324, and 2325. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The solar wind speed increased to about 550 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently around 14 nT, probably indicating the arrival of the fast flow from the equator ward extension of the southern polar coronal hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic filed had few long intervals of negative value (about -10nT). Consequently, the K index have now reached value of 5, as reported by IZMIRAN and NOAA. The partial halo CME of April 12 might arrive at the Earth in the late evening of the April 15 or early morning of April 16. We expect minor storm to active geomagnetic conditions to continue in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 075, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Apr 2015

Wolf number Catania	114
10cm solar flux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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