Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 April 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Apr 19 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Apr 2015	156	011
20 Apr 2015	153	011
21 Apr 2015	148	008

Bulletin

Five low C-class flares were reported in the last 24 hours, the strongest one was the long duration C5.2 flare which peaked at 14:19 UT on April 18. The flare was associated with the coronal dimming, EIT wave, filament eruption and the full halo CME. The CME was first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:48 UT, and had the projected speed of about 350 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package). This halo CME might arrive at the Earth on April 23, but we do not expect strongly disturbed geomagnetic conditions (K index maximum 4) due to the slow speed of the CME. We expect C-class flares and possibly, but not very probably, also an isolated M-class flare. The Earth is inside a slow solar wind with the speed of about 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has the average value of 5nT, and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 2 and - 4nT. The fast flow from the small low latitude coronal hole at the southern solar hemisphere (between S10 and S30) which crossed central meridian on April 17 might possibly, although not very probable, arrive at the Earth on April 20. The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet and expected to remain so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 107, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Apr 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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