Viewing archive of Friday, 5 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/1734Z from Region 2361 (N16E51). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 311 km/s at 05/0837Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at 05/2013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0904Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jun 126
  Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        05 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-010/012-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%30%45%

All times in UTC

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