Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/0729Z from Region 2360 (N15W82). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Jun, 15 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 579 km/s at 12/2231Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M30%25%20%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 136
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 135/126/124
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  013/016-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%35%25%

All times in UTC

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