Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0729Z from Region 2360 (N15W82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Jun, 15 Jun) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
579 km/s at 12/2231Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0825Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 136 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 135/126/124 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 013/016-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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