Viewing archive of Friday, 19 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 19/0927Z from Region 2371 (N13E27). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 444 km/s at 18/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0948Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 18/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1057 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M70%70%60%
Class X15%15%10%
Proton40%40%40%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 137
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun   011/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-007/008-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%40%
Minor storm01%01%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%65%

All times in UTC

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