Viewing archive of Friday, 26 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0606Z from Region 2371 (N13W64). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 26/0935Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0729Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 26/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2395 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (27 Jun), active to major storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M60%60%30%
Class X20%20%10%
Proton95%50%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 101
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  019/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  024/045-035/060-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm40%40%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm79%79%60%

All times in UTC

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