Viewing archive of Monday, 29 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/1807Z from Region 2373 (N15E55). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at 29/1052Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0622Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 29/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (30 Jun, 02 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 097
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  005/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%10%

All times in UTC

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