Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0337Z from Region 2381 (N14W11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 09/1636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 122 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 009/012-017/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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