Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 21/1803Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0242Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/0455Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 091 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-013/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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