Viewing archive of Friday, 31 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug,
02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
640 km/s at 31/1832Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/2132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/1153Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Aug) and unsettled levels on day three
(03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 101 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/024-012/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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