Viewing archive of Monday, 17 August 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Aug 17 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Aug 2015	085	011
18 Aug 2015	084	021
19 Aug 2015	084	011

Bulletin

Solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. There have been a few low magnitude B-class flares and no C, or above, class flares. This low level of activity is expected to persist for the next day, with the possibility of C-class flares. However, a large Active Region (AR) is rotating into view on the east limb which may increase activity. AR 2400 (Macintosh:Axx/Type:alpha) and AR 2401 (Macintosh:Dai/Type:Beta) have both remained quite stable. A large coronal hole is currently located at high latitudes and may increase the solar wind speed. No evident Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed has remained roughly constant over the past 24 hours, around 550 km/s. The total magnetic field has been stable around 6 nT, and the Bz component has fluctuated, but has become more negative over the past 10 hours. The Bz has ranged between +10 and -6 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to moderate over the past 24 hours due to lasting effects from the CME first observed on 2015-Aug-12. Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist and will be possibly enhanced in 24-48 hours if the CME/shock front produced at 09:36 UT on 2015-Aug-14 interacts with the Earth. There is a large transient coronal hole currently located at high latitudes near the centre of the solar disk, as this rotates into the Western hemisphere the lower region may produce enhanced solar wind speeds.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	086
AK Chambon La Forêt	040
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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