Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (20 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 19/2052Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1325Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 098 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 016/022-010/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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