Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 August 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Aug 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Aug 2015	099	017
21 Aug 2015	100	012
22 Aug 2015	101	012

Bulletin

Solar activity has slightly increased over the past 24 hours, with Active Region (AR) 2403 (Macintosh:Dac/Type:Beta) producing three C-class flares. However, the region appears relatively stable with a small amount of growth. There was a small filament destabilisation and eruption at 17:00UT on 19-Aug-2015 close to the south east limb of the Sun, but this is not believed to be Earth directed. No evident Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were produced in the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain relatively low over the next 24 hours, with AR 2403 producing C-class flaring activity with the small possibility of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed has been slowly increasing over the past 24 hours, from 450 km/s to 500 km/s. The total magnetic field has been around 9 nT, and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -8 nT and +8 nT over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active over the past 24 hours, with the local K index (Dourbes) reaching 4 and the Kp index (NOAA) also reaching 4 yesterday (2015-Aug-19), these conditions were possibly caused by a coronal hole (CH) located in the northern hemisphere, N35 W40, or from the CME/shock front produced at 09:36 UT on 2015-Aug-14, which was anticipated to reach Earth early today. The above mentioned CH maybe geo- effective creating further unsettled conditions at the earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Aug 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	051 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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