Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/1353Z from Region 2403 (S16W44). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug,
28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 26/0413Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0837Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1837Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 526 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (29 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 126 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 016/016-013/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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